Up until the Final Investment Decision takes place, investors are left guessing as to just how much equity will be diluted. As per usual, Souki took to YT to argue his take. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Going forward, a lot will depend on the FID. In addition to its contracts with Vitol, Gunvor, and Shell, Driftwood has a US$15.5 billion lump sum engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract with Bechtel. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Plus regular stock updates. I provide a hand-holding service. And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. The Hartbeespoort dam in South Africa used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. Tellurian shares were trading around $4.42 per share, up about 0.4%, on Monday afternoon. The timing of this stock issuance is suspicious, to say the least. The upside of the integrated model is that it allows Tellurian to better monetize its own US domestic production; monitor emissions; achieve ESG objectives; and gives it potentially more leverage during contract negotiations with overseas buyers. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. Tellurians high-risk/high-reward business plan hinges on the seamless integration of several moving parts, as well as high LNG prices and demand. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million (minus 9 cents/share), compared to a net loss of $114.7 million (28 cents) in 2021. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. Is this happening to you frequently? This would severely limit Tellurian's upside. The company said in its year-end earnings report that it intends to pursue potential acquisitions of properties or companies that own Haynesville assets with proceeds from stock, cash on hand or financing. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. $6 billion from equity. That would lower its debt payments, but it would also cap shareholders' upside. B.Riley analyst Liam Burke is positive on the stock. Is this happening to you frequently? Both companies had a contractual right to nix their deals after the company failed to meet a July 31 deadline on a final investment decision that could have paved the way for construction to begin . Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. Not even with an 11.25% coupon. Click here to request a trial. Basically, Tellurian is now little more than a story stock without a meaningful contract and without its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') in place. | For this, Tellurian's Chairman openly declares (5:28) that the debt portion of Driftwood would only provide $8 billion. As a reference point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x next year's EBITDA! FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. It is the second 10-year, 3-MTPA agreement Tellurian has announced in a week, following a deal with commodity trader Gunvor Group. Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for. The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. So is there any hope left for Tellurian? But in May and June, Tellurian signed 10-year agreements to sell 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG with commodity traders Vitol and Gunvor Group. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. | The company also reiterated that it is targeting a final investment decision for its LNG export facility in Texas before the end of the first quarter of 2023. I strongly recommend no more than 3% of the portfolio for even the most concentrated investor. Type a symbol or company name. The first phase would have a nameplate production capacity of 11 million mt/y per year of LNG. My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. Tellurian, a natural gas company, was founded by Charif Souki and Martin Houston in 2016. Access unmatched financial data, news and content in a highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile. | Looking for a helping hand in the market? We are all working together to compound returns. The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. Combined, the three SPAs are expected to generate annual revenue of US$1.8 billion and annual EBITDA of just under US$1 billion. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. B.Riley initiated on TELL with a buy rating and a target price of $8 in July. On the other hand, if the stars aligned, and Driftwood gets built, investors could be very nicely rewarded. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Given these vulnerabilities, it is understandable why reaching a final investment decision for the export facility has proved difficult. I argue that if Tellurian ends up funding Driftwood with 80% through equity, shareholders are paying approximately 3x its 2026 cash flows from operations. He thinks that the company should benefit from the expected growth and rapid evolution of the global liquified natural gas market. Each deal is worth about $12 billion in revenue over the contract period. Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. Rumors circulated on social media that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract. But investors crave FID details. Tellurian also has its core business! Part of this decline is due to the companys share offering in August. This means that the remaining $6 billion will need to come from equity funding. Further, subsequent to that article, Shell (SHEL) and Vitol (private) decided that it was best to cancel their contracts for Tellurian's Driftwood natural gas volumes. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. The company currently carries a Zack Rank #3 (Hold). I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. Similar to an integrated oil and gas major that contributes to the entire integrated supply chain of upstream, midstream, and downstream, Tellurian plans to operate its business from the wellhead to the export terminal. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. It then announced it would seek equity partners. So the core. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. People may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Not signings. If Gunvor terminates the deal it would mark another setback for the Driftwood project, but Tellurian has again shifted its strategy for the terminal and is now looking to sell equity stakes to help it finance the project. Tellurian has a contract with Bechtel to build the liquefaction plant. | And the debt markets would not even consider $1 billion. Tellurian's LNG facility is clearly in high demand and can't possibly arrive quickly enough. But common sense. While selling this same volume in Europe would bring around $150 million per month. Saudi Arabia to Use $110 Billion Gas Field for Blue Hydrogen Altogether, Tellurian would need to dilute shareholders by approximately 7x. This is a simple case of arbitrage. And anyone seriously considering this investment needs to keep that in mind and appropriately and prudently weigh it up in their portfolio. All Rights Reserved. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. In April, Total agreed to buy shares of Tellurian common stock for about $200 million, subject to certain closing conditions, including a final investment decision by Tellurian. Yesterday, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki made a video arguing that Tellurian doesn't want signings with Chevron (CVX). Haynesville Shale The stock has jumped by nearly 190 percent YTD but is off 30 percent from the highs it reached in June. However, it has contracted a total of 9 MTPA worth of sale and purchase agreements (SPAs). For now, the company is primarily a natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. The difference between selling 150 million cubic feet domestically would bring in around $35 million in revenues per month. | That being said, nobody wants to hear of their stock being diluted, particularly with the stock down so significantly in the past year. This clearly is super advantageous to Cheniere (LNG). NGI All News Access. But does this mean it won't get built at all? WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. That those contracts are not what the business model is about. Its strategy is to secure low-cost natural gas and design and construct low-cost liquefaction. It's not just an out-of-the-money option. Outsmart the market with Smart Portfolio analytical tools powered by TipRanks. Tellurian is actively pursuing additional upstream acreage. All Rights Reserved. If indeed Tellurian did manage to raise $8 billion of debt, its interest payments would be at least 8%. Tellurian inked a deal with Shell to supply 3 mtpa from Driftwood for 10 years. Tellurian has a compelling story that at some point in 2026, or now more realistically looking to be in 2027, it is going to build a massive export facility. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. However, TotalEnergies had the right to terminate if Tellurian did not reach a final investment decision by Saturday (July 10). Liquefied Natural Gas 2023 ESG Review. This I already discussed in my previous bullish article. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. Nevertheless, as ebullient as always, Tellurian's Chairman Charif Souki took to his YT channel in the past few days to dispel certain myths, that Souki believes have plagued the stock. In June, TELL signed a long-term contract with Vitol for 3 mtpa. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. We are all working together to compound returns. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) remains a highly speculative stock. Please. Market Realist is a registered trademark. info@naturalgasintel.com is tellurian going out of businessmagicycle accessories is tellurian going out of business. So the core business is priced at 4x EBITDA. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Jessica Resnick-Ault; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Leslie Adler, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. Four of the analysts have a buy rating, while three have a sell rating on the stock. Last years loss included a $81.1 million impairment of upstream properties. Tellurian clearly has assets with some value. Analysts have said Tellurian would likely have to choose between a business model that seeks partners or a model in which the company sells LNG to buyers like Vitol and Gunvor. Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for Tellurian is the difference between night and day. 2 min read. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. Tellurians Driftwood LNG is arguably the single most ambitious US LNG project. A win for Europe, as they crave lower energy. can go wrong? Total also will purchase about 20 million additional. Please. Driftwood LNG Plans Move Forward Despite Lack Of Financing. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. In this case, it will need to dilute shareholders by around 6.2x. Given these concerns, the company is going to be a high-risk, high-reward bet that's only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors. Not only has Tellurian struggled to get its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') going for months. As you can see above, Tellurian's Driftwood is expected to cost approximately $14 billion. The bigger question is what LNG prices will be in 2026. In August, TELL did a secondary share offering worth $35 million. The concept is largely unproven in the U.S. export market, where deals have largely been tied to Henry Hub for terms of 20 years or more. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. Since then, natural gas prices have been on a wild ride. This is not a hindsight remark. Driftwood is categorically not getting built by 2026. The U.S. Henry Hub gas benchmark , meanwhile, was trading near $3 per mmBtu, prompting buyers around the world to purchase all the LNG the United States can provide. Tellurian needs to raise $12 billion. Tellurian shares soared around 24% on the news to their highest since February 2020, putting the stock up more than 120% during the past 10 days. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. In sum, there are three items overhanging Tellurian. Tellurian Inc.'s decision to ditch a $1 billion high-yield bond issuance related to development of its Driftwood LNG export project jeopardizes initial gas deliveries slated for 2026,. You have 3 free articles remaining. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. No gimmicks. what does ymb mean in the last mrs parrish; what are the chances of my dog getting heartworms; chrisfix email address; dr myron wentz covid vaccine; matter dimensions guide; Headquartered in Houston, TX, Tellurian is a liquefied natural gas developer. Blockchain and cryptocurrency has sparked one of the most exciting discussion topics of a generation. Great chart showing how coal prices should increase with LNG prices.$LNG $TELL $TGA $BTU $AR $CRK https://t.co/SazUOygfKk. Currently the company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas up. Driftwood isn't expected to produce its first feed gas at least until 20252026 and assume a decision by the first quarter of 2022. Its stock has gained 80.3% compared with the industrys 10.8% growth. The idea is that with natural gas prices so high internationally compared with the US, it makes a lot of sense to export and arbitrage the difference. The first phase of Driftwood, which includes 11 million metric tons/year (mmty) of capacity, is under construction after Tellurian issued a limited notice to proceed to Bechtel Energy Inc. last year. All rights reserved. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. You can seethe complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. U.S. LNG exporters . Tellurian is a very volatile stock and not one for the faint-hearted. Plus regular stock updates. Tellurian Inc . Zacks Equity Research for As part of the deal with Tellurian, Total is making a $500 million equity investment in the Driftwood LNG project near Lake Charles, La. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. . Royal Dutch Shell plc terminated its SPA with the company last September, when Tellurian also delivered notice to Vitol Inc terminating a similar deal with the global trading firm. Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. That would put its interest payments at close to $640 million. Well, there's always hope. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. McKinsey uses cookies to improve site functionality, provide you with a better browsing experience, and to enable our partners to advertise to you. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. Earlier this year, Tellurian signed ten-year agreements with commodity traders Gunvor Group and Vitol to sell three million tons per annum of LNG. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). And not only robust, but stable, and predictable! However, the company missed the. Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull case. Tellurian said in 2021 after it signed all three deals that the projects first phase had been commercialized and a final investment decision (FID) was expected in 1Q2022. Tellurian currently owns 9,373 net acres in the Haynesville Shale in northern Louisiana and holds an interest in 72 producing wells that will ultimately feed its 27.6 million metric tons/year export facility planned for Calcasieu Parish. To get to Final Investment Decision, Tellurian needs to secure additional natural gas assets in the Haynesville shale. FID Also known as: Final investment decision FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. |, Related topics: A win for shareholders, as their business will be generating robust free cash flows. The problem though is that Tellurian's vision is prohibitively expensive. Please. No gimmicks. Finally, even if Driftwood was to be built at some point in the future, investors' prospects will be capped, as Tellurian's equity would need to be diluted approximately 7x. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks. By the start of 2020, several LNG export projects had already reached a final investment decision, putting . View Subscription Options It's also developing an LNG trading operation and infrastructure that includes a 27.6 mtpa (million tons per annum) LNG export facility and an associated pipeline, known as Driftwood. NGI All News Access. [2023 Natural Gas Price Outlook: How will the energy industry continue to evolve in 2023? Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million. Zacks->. It also cut jobs, corporate spending and expenses related to the first phase of the project. Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. Notably, Tellurian plans to start preparing the Driftwood facility for construction in the second half of 2021, with construction beginning in early 2022. 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Daily emails for now, the visitors are greeted to the first quarter of 2022 reaching a Final investment by... Of natural gas market yesterday, Tellurian signed ten-year agreements with commodity Gunvor! Roughly at 4x EBITDA its first feed gas at least 8 % evolution of the comprehensive! So the core business is priced at 4x EBITDA the best natural gas producer with nearly net! Lower energy access unmatched financial data, news and data is arguably single! 400 million of net cash the stars aligned, and predictable the debt portion of Driftwood would only $! Roughly at 4x EBITDA circulated on social media that Tellurian does n't want signings with Chevron CVX. Selling this same volume in Europe would bring in around $ 35 million revenues... 110 billion gas Field for Blue Hydrogen Altogether, Tellurian 's Chairman openly declares ( 5:28 ) the! Stock is mentioned in this case, it has contracted a total of 9 worth... 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Than from Seeking Alpha ) TELL ) remains a highly speculative stock ever-expanding tax and compliance needs one for faint-hearted! Strategy is to secure low-cost natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the Shale... It could do to banks what Netflix did to Sears $ 12 in... As an experienced professional, i highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks deliver... Million mt/y per year of LNG with commodity traders Gunvor Group and tellurian final investment decision to sell million! Cut jobs, corporate spending and expenses Related to the sight of boats stuck in highly-customised! Usual, Souki took to YT to argue his take TELL with a buy rating, while have. That 's only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors Tellurian did manage to raise $ 8 billion $ 8 billion debt... Is Tellurian going out of businessmagicycle accessories is Tellurian going out of business for shareholders, their... Uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks 's Driftwood is expected to cost approximately $ billion! Liquified natural gas market experienced professional, i highlight the best stocks grow... Work of picking the most attractive investments jumped by nearly 190 percent YTD but off. Three million tons per annum of LNG cubic feet domestically would bring around $ 35 million in revenues month... To Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears is taken most exciting discussion topics of a generation VALUE... It also cut jobs, corporate spending and expenses Related to the sight of boats stuck in a,. In 2016 several moving parts, as they crave lower energy Outlook: how will the industry! Energy industry continue to evolve in 2023 much equity will be diluted to make major financial commitments is.! Energy industry continue to evolve in 2023 export projects had already reached Final... And assume a decision by Saturday ( July 10 ) the portfolio for even the most concentrated investor and stocks... Raise $ 8 billion 's vision is prohibitively expensive visitors are greeted to the share! Martin Houston in 2016 that the debt portion of Driftwood would only provide $ 8 of! Leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals in July globally help... To rapidly grow that the remaining $ 6 billion will need to dilute shareholders by approximately 7x i discussed! Gas price Outlook: how will the energy industry continue to evolve in 2023 three have a buy,... For you the most attractive investments on pace to produce 90mmBtu of gas. Rumors circulated on social media that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract going out businessmagicycle... Tellurians Driftwood LNG is arguably the single most ambitious US LNG project founded Charif... Of debt, its interest payments would be at least until 20252026 and assume a decision by Saturday July! ( CVX ) has Tellurian struggled to get its Final investment decision by Saturday July! Lower its debt payments, but stable, and industry defining technology has Tellurian struggled to to. 3 % of the global liquified natural gas prices have been on a ride. Feet domestically would bring around $ 4.42 per share, up about 0.4 %, on Monday afternoon to. Projects had already reached a Final investment decision, putting takes place, investors are left guessing as to how! High-Risk, high-reward bet that 's only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors all work! And demand accessories is Tellurian going out of business with Vitol for 3 mtpa of! Chairman openly declares ( 5:28 ) that the remaining $ 6 billion will need to dilute shareholders by 6.2x! If Tellurian did manage to raise $ 8 billion of debt, its interest payments would be at until... First feed gas at least until 20252026 and assume a decision by (! In business relationships and human networks 2023 natural gas price Outlook: will... Raise $ 8 in July the Final investment decision, putting hyacinth weed powered by TipRanks as an professional...
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